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AbstractExperts can provide quick and diverse opinions that, properly collected and analyzed, can yield rich evaluation information.

Expert opinion is an opinion given by an expert, and it can have significant value in forecasting key policy variables in economics and finance. Expert forecasts can either be expert opinions, or forecasts based on an econometric model. An expert forecast that is based on an econometric model is replicable, and can be defined as a replicable expert forecast (REF), whereas an expert opinion that is not based on an econometric model can be defined as a non‐replicable expert forecast (Non‐REF). Both REF and Non‐REF may be made available by an expert regarding a policy variable of interest. In this paper, we develop a model to generate REF, and compare REF with Non‐REF. A method is presented to compare REF and Non‐REF using efficient estimation methods, and a direct test of expertise on expert opinion is given. The latter serves the purpose of investigating whether expert adjustment improves the model‐based forecasts. Illustrations for forecasting pharmaceutical stock keeping unit (SKUs), where the econometric model is of (variations of) the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) type, show the relevance of the new methodology proposed in the paper. In particular, experts possess significant expertise, and expert forecasts are significant in explaining actual sales.

ABSTRACTIn using nominal groups for decision making, it is necessary to use some mechanical procedure for combining the evaluations. A simulation model is used to compare procedures for the case where a nominal group of m evaluators must select the best of n alternatives and where the evaluations are subject to random errors. Criteria are the probability of making a correct selection and the relative quality of the choice.

At the turn of the millennium, the EuropeanUnion deluded itself with a false sense of security.It had sought to build a ring of friends that weresupposed to become prosperous and more democratic,and to filter migrants coming to Europe. Bydoing so, Europeans made a twin mistake: theybelieved that their neighbours would emulatetheir example, and they outsourced their migrationand border policies. This, in turn, had twoconsequences.

At the turn of the millennium, the EuropeanUnion deluded itself with a false sense of security.It had sought to build a ring of friends that weresupposed to become prosperous and more democratic,and to filter migrants coming to Europe. Bydoing so, Europeans made a twin mistake: theybelieved that their neighbours would emulatetheir example, and they outsourced their migrationand border policies. This, in turn, had twoconsequences.

At the turn of the millennium, the EuropeanUnion deluded itself with a false sense of security.It had sought to build a ring of friends that weresupposed to become prosperous and more democratic,and to filter migrants coming to Europe. Bydoing so, Europeans made a twin mistake: theybelieved that their neighbours would emulatetheir example, and they outsourced their migrationand border policies. This, in turn, had twoconsequences.